Tuesday, January 29, 2019

The U.S. "China threat" disinformation industry. It's ramping up agitation for a war with China in East Asia which America cannot possibly win!

Becoming Dangerously MAD for Jesus
This writer is of a certain generation, one that remembers regularly ducking under a desk at elementary school in preparation for a nuclear war.

It wasn't some remote, abstract concept for me. The school was located just a few miles from the Mather Air Force Base where bombers flew in and out, one of nine Strategic Air Command (SAC) bases in California after WWII.

When I was outside playing (kids did that a lot back then, played outside), I could look up into the sky and see (and hear) flying overhead B-36's and B-47's, and then as technology "improved" came the B-52's. Flying as low as they were no one could confuse these planes with commercial aircraft. We knew they were all carrying nuclear weapons.

Sometimes my parents would drive us to the beach. I looked out over the water where, except for the curvature of the Earth, there was a theoretical unobscured view of Japan, where the United States dropped the only two nuclear bombs used in warfare. Nothing but the Pacific Ocean is between that beach and Japan.

When we did those duck-under-the-desk drills, I would wonder why the drills because we were in the total destruction zone should a nuclear bomb hit Mather AFB. This was before the term Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) was coined in 1962 by Donald Brennan, a strategist working in the Hudson Institute.

Today nuclear war is an abstract for most Americans. But not all Americans. As explained in the October 16, 2018 post "We’re modernizing our nuclear arsenal" to save the word of Jesus, Pence warns China and the world at the Koch funded Dr. Strangelove institute:


    Last month, Beijing shut down one of China’s largest underground churches. Across the country, authorities are tearing down crosses, burning bibles, and imprisoning believers. And Beijing has now reached a deal with the Vatican that gives the avowedly atheist Communist Party a direct role in appointing Catholic bishops. For China’s Christians, these are desperate times.
    We’re modernizing our nuclear arsenal. We’re fielding and developing new cutting-edge fighters and bombers....

That speech was given at the same Hudson Institute the term MAD was coined in 1962.

Does Vice-President Mike Pence, a born-again Christian, reflect an attitude common to the religious right? What kind of precedent could he find for tying Christianity to nuclear war? How about a training program for the real guys with their "fingers on the button." For 20 years a course on “Christian Just War Theory” was taught by chaplains at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California to those who would turn the key should World War III break out.

A PowerPoint presentation which was part of the course consisted of 43 slides to demonstrate the moral justification for atomic warfare. Old and New Testament passages were used along with artwork and a quote from Nazi rocket scientist Werner von Braun who went on to work for the United States after the Second World War stating: “We felt that only by surrendering such a weapon to people who are guided by the Bible could such an assurance to the world be best secured.”

The officers were being told that “under fundamentalist Christian doctrine, war is a good thing”.


Is War Too Easy for A Non-Warrior Leadership?

Mike Pence was born in 1959. Like most American men born after 1957, Pence has not fought in a war. While technically military draft laws are in effect, none of those Americans men have been drafted. And historically only men have been drafted.

Despite the fact that since WWII there have been numerous wars and the draft was in effect through the Korean and Vietnam Wars, no American President since George H. W. Bush has seen active duty much less been shot at or shot at an enemy combatant.

Based on WWII standards, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump would have been considered draft dodgers. So would former Secretary of Defense and Vice-President Dick Cheney whose non-brushes with combat death should be considered as a stand-in symbol for most of the pro-war advisors to Presidents since Jimmy Carter. But Clinton, Bush, Cheney, and Trump should have fought in Vietnam, a war that they, along with many others who found a route to privilege, could avoid because it was politically unpopular.

Effectively most Americans born after 1957, including most in the White House and Congress, have gained their knowledge of war from the entertainment industry.

Quite literally, the United States has not had a comparably low percentage of Americans suffering from combat related PTSD since before the beginning of WWI.

Unfortunately, this creates a situation where most Americans do not recognize the nature of war risks being taken and might be startled at the reasoning behind taking those risks. Indeed, a pro-war "China threat industry" has developed in 21st Century America. The remainder of this post should be considered in that context.

On the day President Donald Trump was inaugurated, China’s military warned that war between the two countries was a real possibility. They did so with good reason.

"We’re going to war in the South China Sea in five to 10 years," Steve Bannon said on his radio show in a March 2016. In August 2016, Bannon was named the chief executive officer of Trump's 2016 presidential bid.


Bannon did serve in the Navy, as explained here in Why you should fear Trumpism's Steve Bannon: war with China within 8 years and other reasons in February 2017. But he has never been shot at by nor shot at an enemy combatant.

And Pence and Bannon are not the only advocates within and outside the Administration for aggression against China.

Americans need to be aware to two significant changes affecting the world.

One change is recent. In December 2017 and January 2018, the Trump Administration put forth a National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy that shifted from a focus on terrorism to a focus on China-as-a-hostile-nation. Not surprisingly, key national security positions  are being filled with China hawks from a variety of viewpoints - Neoliberals and Neoconservatives, as well as economic nationalists, all of whom for their own ideological reasons want an aggressive policy toward China.

Key among those China hawks is National Security Advisor John Bolton who replaced in April 2018 General H.R. McMaster who received a Silver Star as a captain in the 2nd Cavalry Regiment, taking part in the Battle of 73 Easting in the Gulf War. Bolton, on the other hand, enlisted in the Maryland Army National Guard in order to avoid being drafted in the Vietnam War, subsequently writing in his Yale 25th reunion book: "I confess I had no desire to die in a Southeast Asian rice paddy. I considered the war in Vietnam already lost."

As long ago as 1993, while a private citizen, Bolton wrote a series of research papers on U.N. readmission for the Taiwanese government. In the The Wall Street Journal in January 2018, Bolton called on the US to “revisit the One China policy” and suggested the Shanghai Communiqué of 1972 be renegotiated 45 years after the US agreed to acknowledge that “there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China”.


Surviving the Collapse of an Established World Order

The other significant changes affecting the world Americans need to be aware of is the end of the world order established in the 20th Century. When the previous 19th Century world order ended, it was followed by two world wars resulting in the deaths of about 19.7 million people (WWI) and about 85 million people WWII.

The new world order after WWII was the Cold War period ending with the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991, which included what has been called a liberal democracy/global trade order based mostly in Western Europe and the United States. The liberal democracy/global trade order has been destabilized and is collapsing  Nationalism has surged through populism resulting from greater inequality within countries, job losses caused by trade and technology, increased flows of migrants and refugees, and the power of social media to spread hate. Economic globalization has had its own negative impact - Climate Change.

The United States and China will be in competition for leadership. Chinese dominance would be an ideological shift characterized by authoritarian domestic political systems and statist economies that place a premium on maintaining domestic stability. Rather than a single global order, spheres of influence likely would evolve with China attempting to dominate Asia.

The "China threat industry" is oriented to having the U.S. engage in warfare in Asia to try to save what was perceived in the 1990's as a new private economy world order dominated by the United States. That is a mistake based upon ignorance about China and the Chinese.


Know Your Enemy - Sun Tzu in the Art of War

Some 50 posts in this blog have provided extensive information on China. Still it seems imperative we make it clear that the anti-China paranoia is not based on a correct understanding of China. Most Americans don't know anything about, and cannot relate to, China's history, language, culture and government. The Chinese are not culturally European - not even close.

So let us review some basic facts regarding China and the Chinese that probably should be considered before concluding that a shooting ware with China would be a good idea.
► Most importantly, China has the largest population in the world -1.4 billion - and the world's largest middle-class population.

► The native language spoken by most of China's 1.4 billion people is not an Indo-European language. Recently brain scientists have discovered that learning Chinese involves a different brain development.

► No influence from Abrahamic religions permeates Chinese history and culture, unlike American history and culture which is full of references to the 31,102± verses of the bible many of which were used to teach starting an atomic war is ok.

► Our days of the week on our Gregorian Calendar are named for old European gods. The traditional Chinese calendar is a lunisolar calendar which reckons years, months and days according to detailed astronomical phenomena.

► China's 4000± year history of empires created a different civil perspective than the one held in the United States, a country that has existed less than 250 years and in which two of the last three Presidents lost the popular vote. The traditional Chinese form of national government has been an oligarchy with a touch (sometimes a heavy hand) of autocracy led by an emperor or, since the middle of the 20th Century, a paramount leader.

► China and the U.S. share the status of having the world's largest economy. There are two accepted methods used to compare the size of economies.

The first method uses the traditional nominal gross domestic product (GDP),  the market value of all final goods and services from a nation in a given year estimated by financial and statistical institutions, which are calculated at market or government official exchange rates. The United States has the largest such economy. You know that because every American is wealthy - we must be as we have the largest economy.

The second uses a gross domestic product based on purchasing power parity, created using an international dollar, a standardized unit used by economists, which takes into account the relative cost of local goods, services and inflation rates of the country, rather than using international market exchange rates which may distort the real differences in per capita income. As experienced in the lives of ordinary people everywhere, China has the largest economy in the world.


► China has the world's largest military force collectively known as the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) and the second largest defense budget in the world. It is also the third largest arms exporter in the world.

If you've wondered why Trump wanted a "Space Force" think China. The PLA currently has five independent branches, including the army, navy, air force, plus a rocket force – the strategic and tactical missile operator – and a strategic support force, which is in charge of cyber, space, and electronic warfare. The last two branches were established as separate branches three years ago reflecting long-term efforts to modernize the military which included significantly boosting its navy, air force and new strategic units and downsizing its land-based army as part of a strategic shift.
So what many saber-rattling American leaders are talking about is getting into a war with the country that has...
  1. the largest population in the world, four times the American population, a population we have a hard time understanding;
  2. the oldest continuing culture and government in the world;
  3. an economy that is competitive with ours; and
  4. the largest military in the world armed with 21st Century technology;
...and which has expressed no threat to attack United States territory?


The U.S. China Threat Disinformation Industry

This past November the Hoover Institution published a 200-page report Chinese Influence & American Interests: Promoting Constructive Vigilance which outlines how in recent years China is undermining the American democratic process as it has become increasingly assertive in it activities to influence American politics and society.

Now this writer becomes immediately wary when some tome comes out of the Hoover Institute. As explained here in the post The critical civics lesson America & Trump needed: 21st Century Ideologies in America & the Government$ of the United States, the Hoover Institution is one of 487 Neoliberal think-tank partners of the Atlas Network.

Although the report cautions against bigotry against the Chinese people, in fact it is ideologically antagonistic towards the Peoples Republic of China strongly favoring what it frequently terms as American liberal democracy at the very moment in time America's systemically undemocratically appointed President has launched a Trade "War" against China, supported by a undemocratically structured Senate . The report clearly, though perhaps inadvertently, states its ideological bias:

    ...Since Party general secretary Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, the situation has changed. Under his leadership, China has significantly expanded the more assertive set of policies initiated by his predecessor Hu Jintao. These policies not only seek to redefine China’s place in the world as a global player, but they also have put forward the notion of a “China option” that is claimed to be a more efficient developmental model than liberal democracy.

In fact, that is a correct assessment of a change under President Xi. The difficult truth unacceptable to Neoliberals is that in certain circumstances a “China option” may be a more efficient developmental model than liberal democracy when liberal democracy is dominated by Neoliberal economics.

But most cultures in nations with advanced economies outside China have a fundamental objection to a state dominated society. Perhaps that is why one of the study participants, Susan Shirk, a 74 year-old Professor and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs during the Clinton administration, wrote the following dissent including in the document:

Although I have no problem with the factual research that has gone into specific sections of the report, I respectfully dissent from what I see as the report’s overall inflated assessment of the current threat of Chinese influence seeking on the United States. The report discusses a very broad range of Chinese activities, only some of which constitute coercive, covert, or corrupt interference in American society and none of which actually undermines our democratic political institutions. Not distinguishing the legitimate from the illegitimate activities detracts from the credibility of the report. The cumulative effect of this expansive inventory that blurs together legitimate with illegitimate activities is to overstate the threat that China today poses to the American way of life. Especially during this moment in American political history, overstating the threat of subversion from China risks causing overreactions reminiscent of the Cold War with the Soviet Union, including an anti-Chinese version of the Red Scare that would put all ethnic Chinese under a cloud of suspicion. Right now, I believe the harm we could cause our society by our own overreactions actually is greater than that caused by Chinese influence seeking. That is why I feel I must dissent from the overall threat assessment of the report.

This brings us to a different view presented in a February 2019 article What China Threat? How the United States and China can avoid war. The article has a significantly different message suggesting we should reject the view of "the 'China threat' industry in the United States":


    ...A consensus has formed in Washington that China poses a significant threat to American interests and well-­being. General Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), has said that “China probably poses the greatest threat to our nation by about 2025.” ...Christopher Wray, the FBI director, has said, “One of the things we’re trying to do is view the China threat as not just a whole-­of-­government threat, but a whole-­of-­society threat . . . and I think it’s going to take a whole-­of-­society response by us.” So widespread is this notion that when Donald Trump launched his trade war against China, in January 2018, he received support even from moderate figures such as Democratic senator Chuck Schumer.
    Reading about the imminent threat American officials believe China poses, it is not hard to see why Graham Allison, in his book Destined for War, reaches the depressing conclusion that armed conflict between the two countries is more likely than not. Yet since China is not mounting a military force to threaten or invade the United States....
    ...American policymakers have to accept the undeniable reality that the return of China (and India) is unstoppable. Why not? From the year 1 to 1820, China and India had the world’s two largest economies. The past two hundred years of Western domination of global commerce have been an aberration. As PricewaterhouseCoopers has predicted, China and India will resume their number one and two position by 2050 or earlier.
    The leaders of both China and India understand that we now live in a small, interdependent global village, threatened by many new challenges, including global warming. Both China and India could have walked away from the Paris Agreement after Trump did so. Both chose not to. Despite their very different political systems, both have decided that they can be responsible global citizens. Perhaps this may be the best route to find out if China will emerge as a threat to the United States and the world. If it agrees to be constrained by multiple global rules and partnerships, China could very well remain a different polity—­that is, not a liberal democracy—­and still not be a threatening one. This is the alternative scenario that the “China threat” industry in the United States should consider and work toward.

The China Threat Industry represents a real risk to all of us, particularly in the context of MAD. But it has a strong appeal to the Alt-Right and to Neoliberals for two reasons. The first is simply racial and cultural bigotry. The second is economic and political ideology.

Historical Anti-Chinese Racial Bigotry in the U.S.

In terms of racial bigotry, perhaps we need to consider one element of American history that buried deeply in our WASP-created culture an inability to comfortably deal with the Chinese.


A review of the history of the U.S. is not complete without discussing the Transcontinental Railroad. Building the Transcontinental Railroad achieved a goal of creating a fast and easy economic and migrant connection between the two coastlines by crossing the Transcontinental Divide, a physical barrier which in earlier times would have assured the existence of a different country on the west side of the divide.

In order to assure a permanent occupation of the area west of the Transcontinental Divide on the map above, during the Civil War President Abraham Lincoln signed the Pacific Railroad Act of 1862 authorizing the creation of two private railroad companies, the Central Pacific in the west and the Union Pacific in the mid-west. The companies were created June 28, 1861, two months after the Civil War began. With the secession of the South, the modernizers in the Republican Party founded in 1854 controlled the US Congress wanted to build the First Transcontinental Railroad.

The 1,912-mile continuous railroad line that connected the existing eastern U.S. rail network at Omaha, Nebraska/Council Bluffs, Iowa with the Pacific coast at the Oakland Long Wharf on the San Francisco Bay was completed in 1869. The new line crossing the Transcontinental Divide reached the Pacific and connected in Omaha to railroads serving the Atlantic Seacoast.

The implementation of that construction is a symbol of the evolving cultural difference between the Pacific States and the states east of the Transcontinental Divide.  The construction could not be done without immigrant workers.

On the east side of the Divide to work for the Union Pacific Railroad came immigrant workers from British-occupied Ireland. The immigrant workers on the west side of the Divide came from Asia across the Pacific to work for the Central Pacific Railroad. They were Chinese, of a different race who spoke a language even stranger than Irish Gaelic and whose religion was even more threatening than the Irish Catholicism.

The "foreignness" of the Chinese became a problem for white America.

Ultimately, in the spring of 1882, the Chinese Exclusion Act was passed by Congress and signed by President Chester A. Arthur. This act provided an absolute 10-year moratorium on Chinese labor immigration.

The Chinese Exclusion Act was the first law implemented to prevent a specific ethnic group from immigrating to the United States. It was repealed 61 years later by the Magnuson Act on December 17, 1943. That was after the United States rounded up descendants of immigrants from Japan and put them in concentration camps.

Anything about this sound similar to the immigration policy controversy today? And does that history color the attitudes of many Americans regarding the Chinese today?

Impassioned Ideologues in Both the U.S. and China are Dangerous

As socialism does in the People's Republic of China,economic and political ideology also color the attitudes of many Americans. Ideology endangers all of us.

Among the previously mentioned 50 posts on China are five posts with the heading


which provide an extensive background on economic and political ideological issues regarding China.  At the end of one of those posts, the following was included as a footnote.

Some American's get hung up on the issue of freedom. The goal of these posts is to discuss cultures and economies, but if "truth, justice, and the American way of freedom" are going to get in the way....

Pretend for a moment that you are a Chinese person who has received a decent education, perhaps even having spent some time in the United States. And you are fluent in reading English.

From your perspective the problem is that any ongoing news coverage of China caters to a knee-jerk reaction in too many Westerners, as we shall see. Americans start writing about the horrors of Marxist ideology because "proper" American thinking about freedom begins and ends with getting rich, with a side thought of being able to criticize others without retribution.

The American idea of a "big picture view" is a 72-inch TV screen. They freely express concerns about authoritarian rule in China while being ignorant of their own country which is built on the pain of native Americans - the largest population in world history to be subjected to government-sponsored genocide.

And it is as if they don't understand that Capitalism, which has an "-ism" at the end of the word, is an economic ideology every bit as much as is Socialism and the evils of both ideologies when rigidly applied are real.

In much American writing, a government implementation of Socialism is an attack on freedom while the U..S. government's implementation of Capitalism is not even acknowledged despite the fact that it is much of the subject matter of the Constitution.

Most certainly most white Americans do not understand what "authoritarian" means or how it has been carefully implemented by governments in the U.S. to support Capitalism.

According to the Oxford English Dictionary authoritarian means "favoring or enforcing strict obedience to authority, especially that of the government, at the expense of personal freedom."

You know, of course, that the United States has the highest incarceration rate in the world.

The reason for this most Americans understand clearly. The United States has a set of government implemented laws that are based on a very subjective morality that has deliberately selective racial and religious bigotry components that would have been unacceptable in all other countries of the West in 1999.

The "Black Lives Matter" movement didn't arise because the United States offers the most authoritarian-free government possible to its people. If you're a black American, you live in a fearful world created by a police state not unlike Nazi Germany. If you read that as an overstatement, you are an "in-denial probably-white American" or participant in the police state culture.

If the enforcement of strict obedience to authority at the expense of personal freedom is what defines "authoritarian", then the United States is the most authoritarian country in the world. The People's Republic of China (PRC) doesn't even come close with an incarceration rate somewhere between Canada and Luxembourg.

Of course, in China the expression of opinion regarding political, economic, and social issues is subject to government restriction. And that includes a lack of freedom of the press. Whether within the United States today that is considered good or bad depends on

  1. whether people think that the press is an obstacle to their objectives and
  2. whether you believe the myth that entertainment can be defined as the press.
But one has to wonder about a people...

  1. that know their country has the highest incarceration rate in the world, 
  2. that know that most of the incarcerated are black and brown males, 
  3. that know that "a." and "b." were the result of a deliberate choice by white people, and
  4. that, without acting to stop it, know that their police are killing
...but who still think that the United States does not have authoritarian governments at all levels.

Pretend for a moment that you are a Chinese person who has received a decent education, perhaps even having spent some time in the United States. Would you think a system built on Capitalist ideology that imprisons many thousands of people - the highest per capita incarceration rate in the world - is much better than imprisoning a relative handful of people for being outspoken against the Communist Party? Would you think a system built on Capitalist ideology that has uniformed police killing because of their race more people in the street than any country in the world is much better than one built on Socialist ideology that kills people who engage in and advocate revolution?

But these posts are about the economic future of our children and grandchildren. So pretend for a moment that you are an American who knows practically nothing about the world's most populous nation which by many standards has the largest economy in the world. Since many understand that this nation, China, has already begun to replace the United States as the leader of the world, it is likely that it will be very important in the lives of your children and grandchildren.

It's interesting how Americans fall back on some "freedoms" argument to attack China. Yet many of those same Americans, including members of Congress, are concerned about the evident harm to America the lack of any control of the internet has permitted, harm which has not come to China solely due to tight government restrictions. But that's too easy a subject to use.

Far more complex has been the recent criticism over China's persecution of some Muslim minority groups, huge numbers of whom are allegedly being held in internment camps. Curiously, many American Christians have led that criticism. There are reports of physical as well as psychological torture in the camps. An almost complete surveillance state in Xinjiang has been indicated.

So that's a simple one - the Chinese state is evil. Right? Well, not so fast.

Xinjang Uyĝur Aptonom Rayoni 新疆维吾尔自治区 is
  1. is a provincial-level autonomous region of China in the northwest of the country bordering the countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Mongolia, and Russia;
  2. is the largest Chinese administrative division and the eighth largest country subdivision in the world and home to about 24 million people , including 14 million Muslims; and
  3. is larger in land area than the largest U.S. state Alaska, more populous than any U.S. state except California and Texas, and home to a Muslim population that is larger in total than any U.S. state total population except California, Texas, Florida, and New York - more people than 14 least populous U.S. states combined.
Exactly how would the U.S., a "Christian" country that refuses to take Muslim refugee children suffering because of wars the U.S. is involved in, handle a resident Muslim population that size which includes terrorists? If it were a state in the United States, Xinjang would be the third largest state with a 60% Muslim population which, if only ½ of 1 percent were terrorists, would include 70,000 active terrorists living among a generally sympathetic state population. Remember, this is America, the land which incarcerated in similar internment camps thousands of Japanese-Americans for being Japanese-Americans.  Remember this is America, the land that issued lengthy three-strikes prison sentences to a huge black population for using drugs.


Current Active American Military Provocation

It's one thing to be economically competitive with China in the global arena which this writer supports. It's another thing to talk about a war with China in Asia. And make no mistake about it. The U.S. Navy is currently engaged in provocative behavior less than 70 miles from the several coastline Chinese cities. (Google South China Sea aircraft carriers for the latest news stories.)

Don't be confused about a war in Asia. We did not win the Korean War. We did not win the Vietnam War. The Chinese will not allow us to win a war threatening the Chinese mainland even if it were to lead to mutual assured destruction which is correctly abbreviated as MAD.

And if you examine carefully the "China threat" disinformation industry propaganda, you will find it is based on outdated 20th Century ideology. We need to effectively counter their efforts.

It's not that there is nothing to these headlines this week...


...but let's get one thing straight. The China-Russian border is 2,500+ miles long and has existed in some form for perhaps a thousand years. It is essentially the same as the border between the Russian and Qing Empires settled by a number of treaties in 17th through 19th century.

In every century some conflict and tensions occurred. In the 20th Century there was the Sino-Soviet conflict of 1929 and the Sino-Soviet border conflict was a seven-month undeclared military conflict between the Soviet Union and China at the height of the Sino-Soviet split in 1969 with numerous border clashes. The most serious clash in March 1969 is referred to by Chinese historians as the Zhenbao Island Incident brought the two communist-led countries to the brink of war.

And yet four years earlier in 1965 this writer found himself in trouble in college for challenging the myth of monolithic communism with regard to China and Russia (Soviet Union) which was being taught as some inherent truth. I argued that there has never been any love lost between the Chinese and Russians as the two nationalities had a history of conflicts.

Now we're back to China and Russia being the threat, but allegedly it is really China that represents the biggest threat because, among other reasons it's economics and politics are still run by a Communist Party. Russia, after all, is now like us with it's economics and politics run by corrupt capitalists who attacked our elections - so China is more dangerous.
 
What really has American undies in a bunch is 5G technology. A post on 5G will follow in the coming days, but what you need to know is that 5G isn't about you and your phone-type devices. As explained in the New York Times:

    It is the first network built to serve the sensors, robots, autonomous vehicles and other devices that will continuously feed each other vast amounts of data, allowing factories, construction sites and even whole cities to be run with less moment-to-moment human intervention. It will also enable greater use of virtual reality and artificial intelligence tools.
    But what is good for consumers is also good for intelligence services and cyberattackers. The 5G system is a physical network of switches and routers. But it is more reliant on layers of complex software that are far more adaptable, and constantly updating, in ways invisible to users — much as an iPhone automatically updates while charging overnight. That means whoever controls the networks controls the information flow — and may be able to change, reroute or copy data without users’ knowledge.
    In interviews with current and former senior American government officials, intelligence officers and top telecommunications executives, it is clear that the potential of 5G has created a zero-sum calculus in the Trump White House — a conviction that there must be a single winner in this arms race, and the loser must be banished. For months, the White House has been drafting an executive order, expected in the coming weeks, that would effectively ban United States companies from using Chinese-origin equipment in critical telecommunications networks. That goes far beyond the existing rules, which ban such equipment only from government networks.

Good reasons exist for concerns. The stand-in-for-China boogeyman target, Huawei, surpassed Apple as the world’s second largest smartphone brand in 2017 behind Samsung, a South Korean multinational conglomerate.

Samsung manufactures 50 percent of its mobile phones in Vietnam, one of the world's five nations run by a Communist Party, as it recently reduced its Chinese production by approximately 40 million because of high labor costs in China, one of the world's five nations run by a Communist Party.

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd (aka Foxconn) currently assembles the majority of Apple's iPhones in its Shenzen, China, plant while another company, Pegatron, built about 30 percent of the iPhone 6 orders in its Chinese plants.

If smartphone assembly were the worry, China already won that competition. But while Chinese-made 4G or older smartphones are essentially all we have in the U.S., 5G will be embedded in the entire world around us.

That is why the the "China threat" disinformation industry is being allowed to assert itself. It is reasonable for United States to not want Huawei (aka China) to win the 5G competition. But creating a war with China to win a competition with Huawei is simply a weird idea. It's an economic competition. If it's important, subsidize 5G development, production, and sales by American companies using taxpayer money after ramping up corporate taxes back to where they were in 2016.

Perhaps it's well that America wake up to the world-wide technology competition. After all, in terms of rollout, the nation leading the 5G race is Germany. Meanwhile much of the American geography has no access to 4G cell phone service and 5G will be too expensive to implement in those areas.....

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Trump is still winning 2020. Why don't Democrats understand the basics of the U.S. government?

I don't really think that focusing on the 2020 Presidential race is a good idea for Democrats. Nonetheless, it is already a focus of the press.

It is interesting to watch the various Democratic politicians throw their proverbial hats into the 2020 Presidential election ring. And it's fun to ruminate about that election in the context of Donald Trump's disapproval rating in the polls.

Various headlines indicate polls showing that Donald Trump has at the national level a 40%±  approval rating and a 56%± disapproval rating. So a good, lefty Democrat has a chance to beat him in 2020. Right? Not really.

(If you don't understand that it doesn't matter what the nation-wide majority thinks, please read the post When your government is not now and never has been a democracy, you are a United States citizen.)

Right now, polls indicate that Trump is not "disapproved" by a majority of those polled in states with 258 Electoral College votes. Absent some major negative event, he could win in those states in 2020 no matter who the Democrats nominate. And he needs to not be "disapproved" in enough states to win just 12 more Electoral College votes.

Here's the lineup of surprising states in which he currently has a majority "disapproval" rating that he will have to campaign in to find enough Electoral Votes to win:

The inverse of that is that the Democratic nominee should have the potential to win a sufficient combination of those states to prevent Trump from getting his 12 Electoral College votes.

Of course, Trump currently is not "disapproved" by a majority of those polled in states like Ohio and Florida. A Democrat might win those states thereby beating Trump.

But if the Democrats nominate a candidate that cannot win in any of the listed states of Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, North Carolina, North Dakota and West Virginia, then that candidate is not going to have an easy win against Trump absent a major event casting a negative light on Trump.

Who among these currently mentioned candidates (listed in last name alphabetical order) has a chance in those states: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Cory Booker, Sherrod Brown, Steve Bullock, Pete Buttigieg, Julián Castro, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Eric Garcetti, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, John Hickenlooper, Eric Holder, Jay Inslee, John Kerry, Amy Klobuchar, Terry McAuliffe, Jeff Merkley, Beto O’Rourke, Richard Ojeda, Tim Ryan, Bernie Sanders, Howard Schultz, Eric Swalwell, Elizabeth Warren, and/or Andrew Yang?

Then again, Democrats could go "all in" on the preferences of their reliable policy-oriented base located in California and New York and not worry about how to win Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, North Carolina, North Dakota and West Virginia against Trump. And Trump could win.

At some point it's got to start bothering Democrats that a reliable 40%± of Americans approve of Trump if only because the structure of the U.S. government requires occasionally winning in states like tiny Wyoming where Trump has a 64% approval rating - you know, the 573,720 folks in Wyoming who have the same number of U.S. Senators representing them as the 37,253,956 folks in California.

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

On "the grandest day San Francisco had ever seen" a priest began lighting San Francisco three years before New York City's streets were lit by Edison

One of the more frustrating things about being a Californian familiar with his state and its history is the sheer hubris of claims made by those living East of the Rockies and the degree to which those claims became the untrue truths of United States - myths, really - way, way before there was a Donald Trump.

One of those frustrations is associated with the mythology surrounding Thomas Edison. As noted in Wikipedia: "Edison's major innovation was the establishment of an industrial research lab in 1876." Simply put, Edison became a successful businessman who by 1911 brought all the companies he had started as a result of his industrial research operations together into one corporation, Thomas A. Edison Incorporated, with Edison as president and chairman.

My frustration is not about businessman Edison and his successes and failures. The frustration is that 99% of Americans do not recognize the name Joseph Neri.

On the evening of July 4, 1876, termed "the grandest day San Francisco had ever seen", Neri pulled a lever while standing on the top of St. Ignatius Church and the streets of San Francisco were lit with electricity for the first time.

The results of Neri's efforts were noted in the San Francisco Chronicle:

    San Franciscans, ever on the vanguard of change, quickly went to work lighting the city. Three years before New York City's streets were lit by Edison, the California Electric Light Company opened a power station next door to St. Ignatius. The station provided electricity to San Francisco's first electric street lamps in 1879 and, by year's end, to the Palace Hotel and California Theater. What began as an experiment by a Jesuit priest had transformed the city.

That last sentence explains my frustration. The first Jesuit priest to be ordained in California, Father Joseph Neri, in 1869 went to work at St. Ignatius College (now known as the University of San Francisco). The following year he was appointed chair of the natural science department. And Neri went on to light San Francisco.

Well, not exactly.

Neri wasn't a businessman, he was a scientist working for a non-profit educational institution, the kind of place and type of person that gives away wealth-creating knowledge.

Using Neri's work some California businessmen did form the California Electric Light Company. Another business, San Francisco Gas Light, faced new competition. In 1896, the Edison Light and Power Company merged with the San Francisco Gas Light Company to form the new San Francisco Gas and Electric Company. To make a long story short, ultimately there was a Southern California Edison Co. and a Pacific Gas & Electric, generally known as PG&E.

And so the Jesuit Priest scientist, Fr. Joseph Neri, became a footnote in American history - well, a footnote only in some kind of extensive technology history book.

On the other hand, businessman Thomas Edison began appearing in popular culture as a character in novels, films, comics and video games. He and Henry Ford became friends and neighbors. When he died in 1931 Edison left property worth $12,000,000 in 1931 dollars. And too many Americans think he invented electricity.

I only note all this because in the midst of all the wildfire and related PG&E bankruptcy news the first comprehensive and well-written article Frayed Wires: As California enters a brave new energy world, can it keep the lights on? appeared today which ties together the complex 21st Century future evolution of the electric power system as it moves away from the 19th Century grid model.

The story only briefly mentions the historical fact: "After all, the first electricity grid was built in San Francisco in 1879, three years before Thomas Edison’s power station in New York City. (Edison’s plant burned to the ground a decade later.)"

The extensive article is focused on the future, noting:

    So getting to California’s new goals of operating on 100 percent clean energy by 2045 and having 5 million electric vehicles within 12 years will require a shift in how power is acquired and managed. Consumers will rely more heavily on stored power, whose efficiency must improve to meet that demand.
    “Large-scale renewables are disrupting the conventional paradigm of how the grid has been constructed,” said Lorenzo Kristov, who is retired from a long career designing markets and planning the state’s grid. “Wind and solar—you can’t tell them what to do. They are challenging just about every aspect of how the electricity system has worked for decades. We need a lot of new thinking.”
    As California chews on the problem, other states and even the federal government are watching—as they do many developments that emerge first in California—to see what arises.

Perhaps, on occasion as the extensive experimentation and research moves forward making newly minted mbillionaires someone will remember Fr. Neri even though getting rich was never a part of his big picture.

And perhaps Californian's will begin to understand that PG&E's electric business today includes only purchasing electricity from others and distributing it to us ordinary folks - a business model that may have no long-term future.

Sunday, January 6, 2019

When your government is not now and never has been a democracy, you are a United States citizen


In politics, facing the truth of apparent success can sometimes be traumatizing. One might suspect that will be the case for many new elected Democrats currently in an extended brazen celebratory mood in the House of Representatives.

As they well know, the House of Representatives is only half of one of three branches of the United States Government - the Legislative Branch. The House has 435 members elected from Districts apportioned on population.

That means that each member represents 0.23% of the population and cast a vote in the House that represents 0.23% of the votes cast by House members. Yeah, that's not even two percent, it's two-tenths of one percent.

Based upon the national turnout of 50.3% of the voters and the fact that the average vote cast for House members was 63.6% of the votes cast, the average member House of Representatives received 32%± of the votes of eligible voters in their District in the 2018 Midterm Election.

It takes a vote of 218 members of the House representing Districts that contain 50%+ of the population of the United States to pass anything. And meaningful legislation created and passed in the House must then be forwarded to the Senate, the other half of the Legislative Branch.

The Senate has 100 members, two elected from each State. Population of each State is irrelevant:
  • California has a population of 39,776,830± or 12.126% of the U.S. population;
  • Wyoming has a population of 573,720± or 0.175% of the U.S. population.

Quite literally, legislation passed in the House can be killed or passed by a vote of 51 Senators who represent the least populous of the 26 states containing only 17.6% of the U.S. population and who were put into office by less than 8% of eligible American voters.

The embodiment of the Executive Branch of the United States Government, the President of the United States, is appointed ("elected" is a misleading word) by a majority of the Electoral College. Members of the Electoral College are selected in each state through a Presidential "Election" process.

So far in 21st Century America, the sitting Presidents have been George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump. Based solely upon the national popular vote, the opponents of Bush and Trump won the elections in 2000 and 2016.

But Bush and Trump became President. That is because the states are not represented in the Electoral College based upon population. And the President is not directly elected by the voters.

The members of the Judicial Branch, our federal judges including the members of the Supreme Court, are nominated by the President and must be approved by the Senate. The House of Representatives has no role in the process. The judges are not beholden to the population for obtaining their posts but rather only to the members of the other two branches representing states.

In other words, the states are the 50 "citizens" of the United States. This presents a rather peculiar picture of the U.S. as a "democracy."

As noted in Wikipedia, the term "democracy" first appeared in ancient Greek political and philosophical thought in the city-state of Athens during classical antiquity. Athenians established what is generally held as the first democracy in 508–507 BC. Athenian democracy took the form of a direct democracy, and it had two distinguishing features: the random selection of ordinary citizens to fill the few existing government administrative and judicial offices, and a legislative assembly consisting of all Athenian citizens. All eligible citizens were allowed to speak and vote in the assembly, which set the laws of the city state.

Athenian democracy was not only direct in the sense that decisions were made by the assembled people, but also the most direct in the sense that the people through the assembly, boule and courts of law controlled the entire political process and a large proportion of citizens were involved constantly in the public business.

Even though the rights of the individual citizen were not secured by the Athenian constitution in the modern sense (the ancient Greeks had no word for "rights"), the Athenian citizens enjoyed their liberties not in opposition to the government but by living in a city that was not subject to another power and by not being subjects themselves to the rule of another person.

However, Athenian citizenship excluded women, slaves, foreigners, non-landowners, and men under 20 years of age. The exclusion of large parts of the population from the citizen body is closely related to the ancient understanding of citizenship. In most of antiquity the benefit of citizenship was tied to the obligation to fight war campaigns.

Americans live in communities that are subject to a hierarchy of power. It begins at the community level in cities, townships, and counties governed by a small number of citizens. All are subject to other power - state government and federal government. Effectively, we are all subject to the authority of, and can be killed by, other persons representing the government whose activities are not controlled in any way by decisions made by the assembled people.

All this has been buried in philosophical discussions that occurred within empires and kingdoms leading to the term "indirect democracy." This references something called "representative democracy" which apparently in practice means that representatives are elected by far less than a majority of eligible voters. And in the case of the U.S. Senate, decisions can be made by a vote of representatives elected by around 8% of the eligible American voters.

But hey, women and non-landowners can now register to vote so long as they are over the age of 18, aren't foreigners, and haven't been convicted of a crime. But since, unlike Athens, only a tiny proportion of citizens are involved constantly in the public business in our "indirect democracy."

How Democratic New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib, who together represent 0.46% of the American population and who together can cast 0.46% of the vote in the House of Representatives, will fare in this government is unclear.

One can only hope that their constituents will understand that Republican Wyoming U.S. Senators Mike Enzi and John Barrasso, while representing 0.175% of the U.S. population or less than half the population represented by Ocasio-Cortez and Tlaib, effectively carry nearly 10 times the clout in America's "democracy" as that of Ocasio-Cortez and Tlaib.

And one can only hope that those constituents will understand that those Wyoming Senators have the same clout as Democratic California U.S. Senators Dianne Feinstein and Kamala Harris who represent 69 times the population of Wyoming.

Again, this presents a rather peculiar picture of the U.S. as a "democracy."

It is not surprising that a study from Harvard’s Yascha Mounk and the University of Melbourne’s Roberto Stefan Foa published in the Journal of Democracy in January 2017 found that one quarter of millennials agreed that “choosing leaders through free elections is unimportant.”

For Californians, the only positive outcome from the 2018 Congressional election is that the Speaker of the House is Democratic Rep. Nancy Pelosi of California and the Minority Leader Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California.

Wednesday, December 19, 2018

"They talk about the end of the world and we are talking about the end of the month!" How Climate Change policy has become the 21st Century symbol of economic division in Western democracies

"What I want to make French people understand – notably those who say ‘we hear the president, the government, they talk about the end of the world and we are talking about the end of the month’ – is that we are going to treat both, that we must treat both." - French President Emmanuel Macron of France in a November 27 speech addressing the open revolt of the “yellow vest” protesters objecting to costs of measures to reduce Climate Change.

Macron is the last of the "Third Way" politicians to gain office as the head of state in a Western Democracy, in the Tony Blair (Labour Party) - Bill Clinton (Democratic Party) tradition. The Third Way was created as a pro-capitalism intellectual re-evaluation of political policies within various center-left progressive movements in response to doubt regarding the economic viability of the state and the overuse of economic intervention policies.

Those economic intervention policies had previously been popularized by Keynesian Economics but in the latter quarter of the 20th Century contrasted with the rise of popularity the Neoliberal right that captured the Republican Party during that period.

Like many Third Way politicians, Macron is intellectually involved in issues such as Climate Change while totally uninvolved in determining how to address those issues in ways that won't create a psychologically depressed working class that would see in the world coming to an end a better outcome.

Depending on how you look at things, a coal-stuffed climate summit is either completely absurd—“beyond parody,” as one commentator put it—or merely appropriate. With each passing month, the threat posed by global warming grows clearer.

Last week, just as the [Conference of the Parties] session in Katowice was getting under way, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, suspended plans to raise that nation’s gasoline and diesel-fuel taxes. The increase had been intended to speed the transition to cleaner cars; the postponement came in response to violent protests by the so-called “yellow vest” movement. Demonstrators complained that Macron was worried about the end of the world, while they were worried about the end of the month. - Elizabeth Kolbert in "Coal for Christmas at the U.N. Climate Conference"

And that summarizes the problem for urbane (note - that is not "urban") in the Western World including the United States - they worry about abstractions like the end of the world as we know it probably coming sometime in the next century or two while struggling workers worry about being unable to pay the electric bill as the very real utility employee is now at the front door ready to turn off the power.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump offers lumps of coal which can be used to heat the house.

And so among all the various environmental climate change headlines came What France’s ‘Yellow Vest’ Protests Can Teach California. The young writer with much insight addresses the November election failure of Proposition 6 which would have repealed a recent gas tax increase adopted by the Legislature. As she explains:

    As the “yellow vest” protests erupt in France, Californians should recognize that many of the policies provoking outrage across the Atlantic are also stoking divisions in our own cities and suburbs.
    Here in California, the gas tax that ignited the French protests brings to mind the most contentious proposition on last month’s midterm election ballot: Proposition 6, which would have repealed a gas tax implemented in 2017. The gas tax is a polarizing issue in the state and cost an Orange County senator his job. Although Prop 6 failed, a substantial 43 percent of Californians—most of them living outside urbanized coastal regions—did vote to get rid of the added cost at the pump.
    On the surface, the gas tax seems fair: If people choose to drive rather than get around using more planet-friendly modes like public transportation, they should pay the price for contributing to climate change and pollution. And those who make more ecologically responsible choices—whether that’s walking, riding a bike, or using transit—should be rewarded.
    But this way of thinking is stuck in an outdated notion of who lives—and drives—in California’s suburbs. ...Many Californians still imagine suburbs as “garden cities” where well-to-do white families enjoy peaceful living while eschewing the ethnic and socioeconomic diversity of the city. But the fact is, as wealthy millennial children of the suburbs increasingly migrate to urban hubs, many minority and low-income residents are being squeezed out.
    The Bay Area is infamous for its extreme wealth inequality and an acute housing crisis that is driving many long-term residents—particularly low-income people and people of color—to outlying areas that have fewer job opportunities and are disconnected from the region’s public transportation network....

    ...In the Bay Area, low-income households’ third largest category of expenses is transportation, after housing and food. The rise of the gig economy means that more so-called super commuters (those who travel more than 90 minutes to work each day) are working multiple precarious jobs, often far from home, rather than commuting to and from one steady job during normal business hours.
    ...
We are unfairly burdening the state’s already disadvantaged communities with the costs of our transition to a greener society, while excluding them from the benefits.....

As noted in this blog previously, the irony is that, California's extra effort in implementing anti-Climate Change policy notwithstanding, Climate Change is going to happen, at near-maximum catastrophic impact. The loss of housing and businesses in recent California wildfires and in earlier hurricanes represents the beginning of a century-long period of environmental changes resulting in new migration within the United States whenever and wherever state and local governments fail to adapt.

"It's the economy, stupid" is a cautionary expression that should be applied to all anti-Climate Change policy development. And the corollary is that the negative economic impacts of that policy must necessarily fall on the rich and successful, or there will be no anti-Climate Change policy.

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Caring, Civility, Courtesy, Foresight, Tolerance, and Humor: The humane values immigrant parents and grandparents gave the elected California leadership

Going into 2019, the United State of California has cut itself free from the political polarization of our country.

This will allow Californians to radiate the following values across the American public arena: caring, civility, courtesy, foresight, tolerance, and humor!

Elections in California during this decade have created what could be the 21st Century leadership role for California in restoring orderly efficacy to the American public arena. Consider the following table:


 

Caring, Civility, Courtesy, Foresight, Tolerance, and Humor

Two of the best known California Governors were Republicans - Chief Justice of the U.S. Supreme Earl Warren and President Ronald Reagan.

Nonetheless, at the beginning of 2018 across the United States almost no one knew that a Republican appointee held one of our state's highest offices, California Supreme Court Chief Justice Tani G. Cantil-Sakauye.

As indicated in the table above, Chief Justice Cantil-Sakauye's Hawaii-born father was of Filipino and Portuguese ancestry Her mother was of Filipino ancestry. Her father worked as a sugar and pineapple plantation worker when growing up, her mother sorted tomatoes and picked figs in California’s Central Valley. After WWII, he worked as an instrument repairman at McClellan Air Force Base and she worked as an executive secretary for the state Department of Corrections. Justice Cantil-Sakauye has two daughters with her husband retired Sacramento Police Lt. Mark Sakauye whose parents of Japanese ancestry were interned during World War II.

Chief Justice Cantil-Sakauye has impeccable Republican credentials. A U.C. Davis Law School graduate, in 1988 after working in the the Sacramento County District Attorney's Office for four years Cantil-Sakauye become Deputy Legal Affairs Secretary, then Deputy Legislative Secretary, to Republican Governor George Deukmejian. In 1990, Deukmejian appointed her as a Judge of the Sacramento Municipal Court. In 1997, Republican Governor Pete Wilson appointed her as a Judge of the Sacramento County Superior Court. In 2005 Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appointed her as an Associate Justice of the California Third District Court of Appeal. On July 21, 2010, Schwarzenegger nominated her (and the voters subsequently approved her) to succeed retiring Chief Justice Ronald M. George on the California Supreme Court.

"I was struck by the fact that she has a tremendous ability to get along with people and build consensus," George said at the time of her nomination. "And at the same, while being a diplomatic and pleasant person, she has a backbone of steel — she is a strong woman with a strong commitment to the administration of justice."

Consistent with that evaluation, a news story that appeared last week Chief justice of the California Supreme Court leaves the Republican Party, citing Kavanaugh shouldn't come as a surprise :

    California Chief Justice Tani Cantil-Sakauye has quietly given up her Republican registration and re-registered as a no-party-preference voter, saying Thursday she had become increasingly uncomfortable with the GOP’s direction nationally and in the state.
    In a phone interview with CALmatters, Cantil-Sakauye—who was a prosecutor before becoming a judge 28 years ago and California Supreme Court chief justice in 2011—said she made the final decision to change her registration after watching the U.S. Senate confirmation hearings of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
    “You can draw your own conclusions,” she said.
    She answered the question about her party registration Thursday after appearing on a National Judicial College-hosted panel at the National Press Club with judges and justices who discussed attacks on the judiciary.
    Cantil-Sakauye last year sent a pointed letter to then U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions and then Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly urging that federal law enforcement cease the practice of “stalking undocumented immigrants” to arrest them in courthouses. She warned that it would prompt immigrants to stop reporting crimes.
    “Enforcement policies that include stalking courthouses and arresting undocumented immigrants, the vast majority of whom pose no risk to public safety, are neither safe nor fair,” she wrote.
    Kelly and Sessions dismissed her request, telling her to address her concerns to Gov. Jerry Brown and that California “sanctuary” policies “threaten public safety, rather than enhance it.”
    Until recently, the court had been divided, with four justices appointed by Republican governors and three by Democratic Gov. Brown. Brown’s fourth appointee, Joshua Groban, is expected to be confirmed at a hearing next week.
    Decisions during Cantil-Sakauye’s tenure as chief justice, however, have generally conveyed cohesion, with the court regularly issuing decisions that are unanimous or near-unanimous.

A another article published last week California Today: ‘Why Is California Not Polarized?’ Ask the State’s Chief Justice noted:

    [Chief Justice Cantil-Sakauye] praised the state Supreme Court’s consensus-based approach and said she doubted that the court would be much different with a majority of Democratic-appointed justices.
    “I think all of us value the fact that there can be no resolution without courtesy and civility and humor,” she said.
    In her remarks, Chief Justice Cantil-Sakauye, 59, spoke about a new generation of judges who embodied what she described as California values — judges who cared about homelessness, climate change and “what are we going to do about guns.”
    She defined the California ethos as “underdog centric” and criticized the federal immigration authorities for making arrests in courthouses.
    “People ask this question all the time, ‘Why is California not polarized?’ We are divided as a nation but not so much as a state,” Dr. David A. Carrillo, executive director of the California Constitution Center at Berkeley Law [and and life member of the La Raza Lawyers Association and the Hispanic National Bar Association], said. “I think it’s particularly telling that we have a state high court that reflects that consensus.”

Chief Justice Cantil-Sakauye's heritage reflects the rich ethnic history of California which, as you can see from the table above, is also reflected in the other 12 statewide offices listed in the table. As you can see, Californians elected two rich white guys to be in leadership roles beginning in 2019 including Governor-elect Gavin Newsom and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

A divorced and remarried rich white guy and former Mayor of San Francisco, Newsom was a prominent early advocate for same sex marriage, euthanasia, universal healthcare, the legalization of cannabis, and the end of the death penalty and was elected Governor receiving 61.9% of the vote against a Republican opponent.

But it is the other rich white guy Californian who will be the curiosity in 2019 as he is the only person listed in that table who is a Republican after Chief Justice Cantil-Sakauye ended her affiliation.


California Leadership of U.S. House of Representatives

Can the California political values of caring, civility, courtesy, foresight, tolerance, and humor be effectively inserted into national politics? In 2019 Californians will provide the leadership in the House of Representatives.

Democrat Nancy Pelosi, who since 1987 has served as U.S. Representative for California's 12th congressional district  consisting of four-fifths of San Francisco, will return to the position of Speaker of the House.

But what is surprising is that Republican Kevin McCarthy, U.S. Representative for California's 23rd mostly rural congressional district since 2007, will become House Minority Leader in 2019.

McCarthy is the first Republican in his immediate family, as his parents were members of the Democratic Party. On June 15, 2016, McCarthy told a group of Republicans, "There's two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump. Swear to God." In 2003, while minority leader in the state assembly, McCarthy "support[ed] most abortion rights, but oppose[d] spending tax dollars on abortions." By 2015, however, McCarthy was a "staunch anti-abortion-rights advocate." But....

In the past two years, he has strongly fought for Trump's policies on tax reform, health care, and immigration. McCarthy worked to assure support from his fellow California Republican Representatives. McCarthy now has to face reality regarding these policies and the Republic losses in the House.

Forty Republican House seats were "flipped" in the 2018 election, seven of 14 in California. Of California's 53 House seats, beginning in 2019only seven will be Republican. And Trump's policies are the problem.

Only 36 percent of likely California voters approved of the Republican tax law, about the same losing number that voted Republican. In defeated Republican Representative Mimi Walters’s affluent previously solid Republican Orange County district surrounding Irvine, 46 percent of residents used the state and local tax deduction eliminated in the Trump tax reform. That increased taxes for those residents. Many, many of those residents are lower level corporate executives who fully understand that their corporations received huge tax breaks, and they know that the money was used for purposes that did not significantly benefit employees.

But it has increased the deficit "hugely."

“We went out and borrowed money and used that to cut everyone a check, and much of that was spent,” Mark Zandi, the chief economist with Moody’s Analytics, recently noted summarizing the impact on the economy. That's the tax reform issue.

Regarding the health care issue, the recent Texas federal court ruling ending the Affordable Care Act represents a potential death knell for Republicans in 2020. The judge ruled the Affordable Care Act unconstitutional, finding that the law cannot stand now that Congress has rolled back the mandate that everyone carry health insurance or pay a fine.

In a previous ruling on a suit to eliminate the Affordable Care Act, the Supreme Court specifically upheld the Act as a tax referencing the individual mandate which levy's a penalty for non-compliance. This new lawsuit filed by the 20 Republican dominated states indicated in the map to the right, supported by the Trump Administration, argued that since Congress now has eliminated the penalty associated with the mandate then in the context of the Supreme Court ruling the Act is no longer a tax and thus unconstitutional. The judge agreed.

The ruling was stayed and will be appealed. The case likely will be heard by the Supreme Court just in time for the 2020 elections. The fact is the Affordable Care Act, particularly the individual mandate that makes it possible to cover preexisting conditions, is very popular. That explain why so many Republican candidates claimed to support those protections while campaigning in the 2018 midterms, despite the lawsuit filed by Republican-controlled states.

This is not good for Republicans, but the fact that the Democrats took control of the House will alter the political dynamics. "This ruling would have been terrible for Republicans if they still controlled the House, but because they don't, they have the opportunity to sit back and focus on message and really this has the potential to give Republicans second life on this issue," GOP strategist Ford O'Connell said. And that's the health care issue.

And then there is the immigration issue. McCarthy needs to look at that table above, particularly the column on the right. It's hard to not notice that all the the official leadership of California's government have parents and/or grandparents who are immigrants. (Except for the other rich white guy on the list whose immigrant ancestors are more than three generations earlier like McCarthy's.)

And he might notice that Speaker of the House Nancy Peolosi's mother and paternal grandparents were Italian immigrants.

Exactly how is McCarthy going to work with these folks who reflect California's rich ethnic makeup and how is he going to try to get some Republican House seats back in California in that context?

And that's immigration issue for McCarthy.

To be relevant in California, at some point the Republican Party leaders like McCarthy must stop catering to Cindy Hyde-Smith’s Mississippi, the least populous among the 11 ex-Confederate states, the only state in the South with a majority of residents still residing outside urban areas, and a state having just 2.9 percent of residents who are Hispanic.

In 2012 Mississippi passed a law calling for police to check the immigration status of people they arrest and in 2017 passed a law prohibiting cities, counties, community colleges and universities from adopting sanctuary policies. And this reflects the policy position of Trump's Republican Party.

Read again above what then Republican California Supreme Court Chief Justice Cantil-Sakauye wrote to Trump's recently fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions and Trump's recently fired Chief of Staff John Kelly. And note as she explained giving up her affiliation with the Republican Party that regarding partisanship she said: “I think all of us value the fact that there can be no resolution without courtesy and civility and humor.”

Whether McCarthy can thread his way through Trump's Old South white bigotry to find a way to create Republican appeal in his own state in which 9 of the 11 state leaders approved by the voters statewide have immigrant parents remains to be seen. The challenge is significant. The fact is in California ⅔rds of the votes cast for House candidates were cast for Democrats.

It would help him if he would work with Pelosi to bring into Congressional policy-making process the California political values of caring, civility, courtesy, foresight, tolerance, and humor.

Thursday, December 6, 2018

The Crimson Tide engulfing 32 states (77% of the United States in area) absorbs the Blue Ripple vote. What the biennially aroused Democrats don't get!


When it comes to ocean metaphors, the National Democratic Party has its head in the sand. Since the 1960's 64% of these United States experienced a consistently rising political Crimson Tide1, dispersed over 77% of the geographic area, which no electoral Blue Wave will sweep away. In the 21st Century, only California has had a significant, consistent electoral Blue Tide.


A Blue Wave versus a Rising Blue Tide

In the months leading up to the November 2018 election, we were buried in "Blue Wave" hype by Democrats and liberal media.


Of course no electoral Blue Wave materialized. As will be explored here, there have been electoral "Waves" and there have been public policy "Waves." Then there is a California "Blue Tide" pushing away the Crimson Tide sustaining currents from its electoral and public policy shores.

The kind of "Blue Wave" that might really matter - a public policy Blue Wave - we last saw in these United States in 1964-66. More on that later.

If you wonder what an electoral Blue Wave really looks like consider this. In the General Election of 1882 California voters chose to:
  • elect Democratic candidates to all of the then existing state Executive positions - Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Treasurer, Controller, and Superintendent of Public Instruction - all previously held by Republicans
  • switch the State Board of Equalization from 3 Republicans and 1 Democrat to 3 Democrats and 1 Republican
  • replace the Republican majority in the State Senate with an 80% Democratic supermajority and the Republican majority in the State Assembly with a 75% Democratic supermajority; and
  • elect 4 Democrats as its members of the House of Representatives from California, previously 2 Republicans and 2 Democrats.
But as is typical for electoral waves, that wave broke, receded, and within eight years Republicans regained domination in California government until 1959, 68 years later, when Democrats started winning some key races and a majority in the Legislature.

Beginning in the 21st Century, California Democrats expanded, with an occasional short-term exception, control of all of California's state government. Instead of a Blue Wave, we have had a "Blue Tide" that has slowly and steadily drowned the California Republican Party in its own Crimson Tide currents.

In the 2018 General Election our Blue Tide did rise to an unusual high. As the new Legislature was sworn in on December 3rd, at the last count:
  • the new Assembly was Democrats 60 (75% supermajority), Republicans 20 (25%), with a chance one seat could end up with a Democrat instead of a Republican;
  • the new Senate was Democrats 29 (72.5% supermajority), Republicans 11 (27.5%);
  • Democrats control every statewide office; and
  • Representatives from California in the House of Representatives included 46 Democrats to 7 Republicans, versus the previous count of 38 Democrats and 14 Republicans.
At this given moment no meaningful Republican Party exists in California, a state where previous Republican Governors included Earl Warren and Ronald Reagan.


About that current sustaining the electoral Crimson Tide

I am a native Californian, I'm old, but until this November I held a foolish hope that the National Democratic Party was going to attempt to create a party structure that would consistently win outside California. But then this appeared less than a month before the election:

"The first line of resistance against Republicans’ extremist policies starts in the states." - from an October 8, 2018 memo signed by Democratic National Committee CEO Seema Nanda and Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee Executive Director Jessica Post

Really? This had to be stated in a memo to the Democratic Party less than a month before the midterms?

Apparently so. Because this week a special election to fill the most important position in Georgia state government - the one that will determine election administrative policy such as whose names to strike off the voter rolls in 2020 - was abandoned by the starry-eyed, celebrity-oriented Democrats who seemingly can only get aroused biennially and then only enough to focus on positions that have celebrity status - like the Governor's position in Georgia that they lost in November (though we must recognize that special arousal that resulted in tens of millions of dollars spent on losing one Georgia Congressional seat special election in 2017, correctly called "a bad and expensive bet"). And so we have this story...


...which tells us...

    Georgia, the site of one of the year's most closely watched races for governor — and before that, its most expensive special House election in history — will hold Tuesday runoffs in a smattering of local races and for two major statewide offices. The duties of one, secretary of state, drew an unusual amount of attention before and just after the Nov. 6 election. Then, the job was held by Abrams's Republican opponent, Brian Kemp, whom Democrats accused of making it more difficult for people of color to vote by purging voter rolls of people who had not voted in recent elections and not supplying enough voting machines at some polling places.
    While Kemp defends his actions, Abrams pointedly did not offer a formal concession when she acknowledged Kemp's win. She is telling voters that their election is not over and is prominently featured in a mailer for John Barrow, the Democrat hoping to replace Kemp.
    "Voter suppression works when people decide their individual voices are too weak or too fragile to bring about change,” Abrams said in a recent interview with The Washington Post. "John Barrow is part of the solution."
    But even with Abrams's urging and the controversy around the Nov. 6 vote, formerly bustling campaign offices are seeing notably less traffic. The celebrities who flew in to endorse Abrams have stayed home. The airwaves have largely been reconquered by local businesses, with only occasional election spots. The relatively low-key election worries Democrats.
    Yet days before the year's final competitive elections, the turnout machine was dramatically smaller than the one that had changed the state's electorate in an unsuccessful attempt to elect Stacey Abrams to the governor's office. "I had 120 canvassers for the November 6 election," said Latrice Benton, the NGP's lead organizer for Gwinnett County, in the Atlanta suburbs. "I had 20 yesterday, but I had to cut them." The reason? "Not enough funding."

The Republican won, of course. Instead, Democrats seem to embrace the following really, really stupid thinking...


Fresh from patting themselves on the back for winning the governor (and attorney general) races in Michigan and Wisconsin, followers of national Democratic "leaders" like Sanders are discovering just how unimportant it is to elect a candidate to a "D-List celebrity" position like governor (or President).

During the lame-duck period before the new Democratic governor-elect takes office in 2019, the Republican legislators - folks who hold the most powerful positions in the United States - are adopting laws which will limit the power of the incoming Democratic governors.

Those legislatures will, of course, remain Republican after the new year begins because the Democrats failed miserably to win the important positions in those states. But those legislatures will not be veto-proof. They needed to act now while a Republican is still governor.

Democrats are grumbling but here's the truth....

There are 132 people in Wisconsin and 148 in Michigan serving as state senators and state representatives. That's 280 legislators, mostly bland, frequently policy-oriented folks not of celebrity status material. They get to decide many details about Obamacare and abortion in those two states, not Donald Trump or any U.S. President, not Congress, and not a Governor. Finding a way to win a simple majority in each state senate and house would have been meaningful.

It's not "fun" to effectively organize a campaign for candidates for those 280 seats. And there are 7,103 other state legislators in these United States, each seat needing the focused attention from the Democratic side, focus comparable to that given by the Koch Bros Neoliberal organization - the current sustaining the American 21st Century Republican Crimson Tide.

In the last quarter of the 20th Century Democrats really didn't seem to want to divert attention away from their Presidential candidates. Thus Democrats lost each election in most of the states whether their Presidential candidate won or not.

During that period the Neoliberals moved the Republicans to victory through the states. That's because they are not confused, as explained here in April 2017:

...Over a period of 70 years, between 1947 and 2016, one group of ideologues - the Neoliberals - achieved effective control of most state government$ in the United States and, at this time somewhat less effectively, taken control of the U.S. House of Representatives. And to some degree their view is strongly represented on the Supreme Court.

In fact, the shift from 1976 to 2016 within the important government$ of the United States, the state legislatures, looks like this (focus on Nebraska which has a unicameral legislature that is supposedly non-partisan).


Yes, in November 2018 Democrats did win a majority in the House of Representatives - thereby winning control of half of one of the three branches of the U.S. government. Yes, control of half of one of the three branches of the U.S. government. That's not a Blue Wave, just a Blue Ripple. At the same time, there was an election that looked like this from the standpoint of political control of the states:


In this context, the "Blue Wave" enthusiasm in the end apparently meant that a few purple states (split control of the legislature) turned totally blue (Democratic control of both houses). And some turned red (Republican control of both houses). As explained by the New York Times:

    In a stark display of the nation’s divide, the lower and upper chamber of every legislature but one — Minnesota — will be controlled by the same party following Tuesday’s midterm elections. It will be the first time in 104 years that only one state will have a divided legislature.
    That emerging political dynamic has potentially serious policy implications. Without a divided government, these single-party state houses are in a position to enact legislation at a time when Washington faces a new round of gridlock after Democrats captured the House and Republicans expanded their control of the Senate.
    The political lineup of the legislatures came into focus as the Democrats captured control of seven statehouse chambers on Tuesday, a relatively weak showing that left Republicans dominant in an overwhelming majority of state governments. By contrast, Republicans seized more than 20 statehouse chambers from Democrats in the critical 2010 midterm elections, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
    The district maps drawn by Republicans who took power in state legislatures in 2010 — a midterm election under President Barack Obama that saw steep losses for his party across the board — was one of the reasons for the modest Democratic gains, analysts said.
    With the election results, the Republican Party will control both houses in 30 states, while Democrats will hold complete control in 18 states.
    Republicans dismissed the Democratic gains in the statehouses, noting how modest they were and that Republicans held onto legislative majorities in crucial states like Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin.
    “We see this as a significantly fumbled opportunity by the Democrats to make gains,” said Matt Walter, the president of the Republican State Leadership Committee, adding that the states where Democrats flipped chambers on Tuesday were all states Ms. Clinton won in 2016. For Democrats, he said, it was a “disappointing night given all the spending and hype.”
    Democrats did not succeed in flipping statehouse chambers in key Midwestern states where Mr. Trump triumphed in 2016. Indeed, Republicans held or extended their majorities in some of those states, including in the Wisconsin Senate and the Iowa Senate.
    In Ohio, where Mr. Trump won by eight points, Democrats fell short of winning the governor seat. While Democrats picked up a handful of seats in the House chamber, they appeared to have lost a seat in the Senate. And even though Republicans lost seats in the state House, the party will retain a three-fifths supermajority in both legislative chambers, giving them the ability to override gubernatorial vetoes.
    In New Hampshire, Democrats flipped both chambers and took control of the Executive Council, which effectively functions as an additional branch of government. Although Gov. Chris Sununu, a Republican, was re-elected, the fact that he will have to deal with a Democratic legislature and Executive Council could make it difficult for him to implement policy.
    The vote on Tuesday represented the first stage of elections that will set the parameters for reapportionment after the 2020 census is conducted. About 800 of the lawmakers elected Tuesday will have a voice in that realignment — for the most part, state senators whose terms are longer than two years. Another 5,000 will be elected in 2020.

When liberals go hat-in-hand to beg the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn state laws on subjects like gay marriage or abortion, they are going there because those liberals failed to do the hard work and spend the money to win their state legislatures. Unless or until the National Democratic Party starts explaining this to their members, it will fail as a political party in the Union known as these United States.

As I've noted here numerous times, it is those who are elected to state legislatures that are in the most important political positions. I know this is difficult for many Democrats to accept. And that is exactly why the Democrats have so little clout over domestic policy within a significant majority of states.


The 1964 Civil Rights Act

Keep within your vision the state-level directional change from 1978 to 2016 when you consider this:


The U.S. Constitution, designed to create a Union of internally independent states, was structured to retain the broadest government power within the state governments.

Or to put it another way, the 10th Amendment emphasizes that the United States Union was created to smooth out commerce across state and international boundaries, provide for a common defense of all states in the case of an attack by an outside foreign government, and a few other minor related items.

Not included in the list were things like inter-personal relationships, health care, education, etc. These were things state legislatures were supposed to take care of. And if you haven't noticed, whether it's Obamacare or land use, it is the legislatures that create the regulatory framework for those issues, and in a majority of cases not in a way we Democrats like because we don't do the work and spend the money on winning all those legislative seats.

Yes, one exception exists to the powers of the state legislatures which was a somewhat confusing result of the Civil War. That is the 14th Amendment, not put in place by our Founding Fathers, which specifically provides that: "No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws." Note that it does not give Congress any specific additional powers. But it does give the federal court system a standard by which state laws can be reviewed.

Now reconsider the graphic above containing the images of Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Donald Trump.

The Civil Rights Act of 1964 based on the 14th Amendment was a law of the United States government making unlawful segregation in public places and banning employment discrimination on the basis of race, color, religion, sex or national origin. The legislation had been proposed by Democratic President John F. Kennedy in June 1963, but opposed by filibuster in the Senate. It is considered one of the crowning legislative achievements of the Democratic President Lyndon Johnson. But was it a the death knell of the Democratic Party within the Union (let's be clear, the Union is not a Union of people, but a Union of states). Consider these two graphics:

Notice the block of states in the south that were Democratic or Mostly Democratic in 1964. Then notice that most of the "No" votes on the 1964 Civil Rights Act came from the solidly Democratic states.

Now reconsider this...


...graphic showing the changes in partisan control resulting from the Democratic leadership sponsored 1964 Civil Rights Act as you consider the following from Wikipedia:

Note: "Southern", as used in this section, refers to members of Congress from the eleven states that made up the Confederate States of America in the American Civil War. "Northern" refers to members from the other 39 states, regardless of the geographic location of those states.

The original House version:
  • Southern Democrats: 7–87   (7–93%)
  • Southern Republicans: 0–10   (0–100%)
  • Northern Democrats: 145–9   (94–6%)
  • Northern Republicans: 138–24   (85–15%)
The Senate version:
  • Southern Democrats: 1–20   (5–95%) (only Ralph Yarborough of Texas voted in favor)
  • Southern Republicans: 0–1   (0–100%) (John Tower of Texas)
  • Northern Democrats: 45–1   (98–2%) (only Robert Byrd of West Virginia voted against)
  • Northern Republicans: 27–5   (84–16%)


The 1965-66 Public Policy Blue Wave

Give some thought to those economic/environmental programs of Johnson's Great Society outlined in the graphic with images of Presidents Johnson and Trump above in the context of how the Koch Bros Neoliberals generally must have reacted. The Great Society explains why they settled in to plan, and then carry out, a long term strategy to take control of the state governments through a Crimson Tide.

In that time, not only have significant elements the 1964-66 policy Blue Wave legislation been rolled back, there is little likelihood of reconciling the political divide among the states. This was reflected in the struggle to implement the Obamacare Medicaid provisions designed to help provide medical care to all U.S. families with income up to an effective 138% of the poverty line who would qualify for coverage in any state that participated in the Medicaid program. The federal government paid 100% of the cost of Medicaid eligibility expansion in participating states in 2014-16, 95% in 2017, 94% in 2018, 93% in 2019, and 90% thereafter. In case it is unclear, the goal was to assure that routine medical care is available to children and larges sums of money were available - but that wasn't enough for the non-green states.

We residents of these not-so-United States seem to have at the personal level slowly evolving questions in the political divide context - who are we and whose pain should we not care about?

A parallel political divide can be found in Britain which has been explained as follows:

    The public are divided down the middle. One of the reasons they’re divided down the middle — and this is not dissimilar to the US — is because Brexit has activated a values divide.
    This isn’t a traditional left-right thing. This is almost our equivalent to a culture war. If you want to predict how people voted, it’s their views on diversity, on gay rights, on gender equality, on the death penalty. It’s those values issues that people are coalescing around.
    What we know about those issues is once they’ve been ignited in political debate, they’re very hard to put out again. People hold those beliefs very deeply and find it hard to change them. That’s one of the reasons why people aren’t changing their minds. It’s one of the reasons why the Brexit division is proving to be a very deep division indeed. A majority of British people now identify themselves as Leaver or Remainer rather than Labour or Tory.
    At the same time, no one has a huge amount of faith in any of our political leaders because the perception is that both Theresa May and [Labour Party leader] Jeremy Corbyn just aren’t very competent at their jobs.
    Finally, one of the reasons this is messy is because we have a series of crises going on at the same time, all of which, except Brexit, were brewing before the referendum, and all of which have been made worse by the referendum.
    We’ve got a crisis of economics because of high levels of inequality and an enormous amount of economic pain being placed upon those least able to deal with it....

Here in the U.S., the election of Donald Trump served as a referendum on the old messy, amorphous 20th Century post-Civil Rights Act political party structures of Lyndon Johnson and George H.W. Bush.

That structure was the losing side in 2016 as we found ourselves in an election in which our economic Neoliberal ideologues and cultural religious traditionalists coalesced, taking over the Republican Party name. These should be "strange bedfellows" but for the time being they appear to make up about a reliable 30% of the voting public, or even 40% with a celebrity like Trump leading this Crimson Tide.


California's Blue Tide policy agenda

The Democratic Blue Tide supermajority in California has some ideas about what ought to be done as explained by long-time observer George Skelton:

    [Governor-elect Gavin] Newsom will target early childhood education, focusing on what he calls the “readiness gap” — kids not being adequately prepared to start school. The governor-elect says he has a “sense of urgency” for “universal access to preschool.”
    That’s also the [Assembly Speaker Anthony] Rendon’s top priority.
    Rendon says he and Newsom are “definitely on the same page. Get the kids early and break the cycle of poverty.” He wants to expand access and also modernize programs.
    But how poor will a family need to be to qualify for a state-funded program? That may upset many people.
    “The consensus in the Legislature is that it’s not our goal to serve kids whose parents have the means to afford their own” early childhood education, Rendon says
    Newsom also will take a stab at universal healthcare, although not necessarily the single-payer, all-government system many of his supporters adamantly advocate.
    “I’m going to push the envelope, lean in on this and see how far we can take it,” Newsom told me in October. “I’ve got over 30 people working on it as we speak.”
    This also is a top priority for Senate leader Toni Atkins (D-San Diego). Last year she coauthored a colossally expensive single-payer plan that passed the Senate and was quickly killed in the Assembly by Rendon because it lacked details and funding.
    Rendon points out that only roughly 7 percent of Californians aren’t covered by medical insurance, thanks largely to the federal Affordable Care Act.
    “Closing that final gap,” he says, “makes more sense” than trying to create a costly single-payer system.
    Another pressing problem Democrats have promised to keep working on is homelessness. Newsom says it’s a priority. So does Atkins. California has by far the largest homeless population of any state, with an estimated 23,000 living on L.A. streets.
    Voters last month approved $5 billion in bonds for various homeless and low-income housing programs, but that’s just a start.

No, it's not "just a start" which is why as an old California Democrat I can be both enthused and a bit depressed. Consider the discussion above in the context of the bottom portion of the graphic that includes Johnson and Trump - here's what I'm talking about:


What we will be creating in California will look much like a "Project Head Start (1965)" and a "Medicaid (1965) and a "Housing and Urban Development Act (1965)". Today we must create  programs to assure the availability of preschool, medical care, and housing for all children. Of course, we're doing it at the state level, where it might not be undone by other states.

I am a native Californian, I'm old, and I remember 1965, which was 53 years ago. At the current time, I feel as politically alienated from 77% of the area of these United States as Jeff Sessions would likely feel in Coastal California.

I keep using that 77% number because - as many learned in 2000 and 2016 Presidents are elected by geography not necessarily number of votes, and as we see every day in votes in the U.S. Senate which is based on geography not population - each state must be considered separately.

In my humble opinion it's time for the National Democratic Party and its supporters to quit looking for a popular Blue Wave in some biennial election and start working to roll back the electoral Crimson Tide state-by-state in 32 states. It will be difficult as it means struggling for victory within that 77% of the geographic area of these United States.

In the meantime,  dealing at the personal level with those slowly evolving questions in the political divide context, all I can answer is "I'm a Californian" who believes the current Democratic Party state-by-state must counter the Koch Bros Neoliberal organization using their own organizational model. To get a more complete picture of the history and organization of the Neoliberal organization  click here.

                                                   
FOOTNOTES:

  1. "Crimson Tide" is a metaphor used here to reflect both the poisonous effects of a Red Tide, a phenomenon associated with wildlife mortalities and harmful human exposure caused by the bloom of an algal species, as well as the name by the University of Alabama sports teams; see Red tide found on Alabama coast; health officials urge caution.

Sunday, December 2, 2018

How the death of a 20th Century President with family ties to early California history amplifies the struggle to reconcile history with today's politics

I am a native Californian, I'm old, and find myself in a struggle to reconcile history with today's politics.

In 2016 as we found ourselves facing an election in which American economic Neoliberal ideologues and cultural Christian traditionalists coalesced to finally take the Republican Party away from the likes of the Bush Yankee Republican dynasty founded by Obadiah Newcomb Bush great-great-grandfather of President George H.W. Bush who died this past week.

This post isn't about the death of President George H.W. Bush whose memory needs no additional positive recognition from me as most of the press has done an excellent job of pointing out how he was the last of a kind as a President. But his death reminded me of the ties of the Bush Yankee Republican dynasty to early California history and to a long tradition of advocating for human rights.

Obadiah Bush and his brother Henry, grandsons of a American Revolution militia captain, were abolitionists. Obadiah, vice president of the American Anti-Slavery Society, petitioned the New York State Legislature to secede from the Union in a protest against slavery, after which The Rochester Daily Advertiser accused him of encouraging anarchy.

His sister-in-law Abigail Norton Bush (c. 1810 – c. 1899) was a women's rights activist in Rochester, New York. She served as president of the Rochester Women's Rights Convention, which was held in 1848.

In 1849 Obadiah traveled to California among the forty-niners in the gold rush. Two years later he died aboard a ship on his way back to California and was given a sea burial, leaving seven children.

One of his sons, Rev. James Smith Bush, was was an American attorney, Episcopal priest, and religious writer. In 1865–66 James also traveled to San Francisco via the Straits of Magellan, but on the ironclad monitor USS Monadnock. In 1867–1872, James served at San Francisco's Grace Church (later Cathedral).

James was the grandfather of the late Republican United States Senator from Connecticut Prescott Sheldon Bush who was the father of President George H. W. Bush and the paternal grandfather of President George W. Bush and Governor Jeb Bush.

Prescott was involved with the American Birth Control League as early as 1942 and served as the treasurer of the first national capital campaign of Planned Parenthood in 1947. His support for hurt him in strongly-Catholic Connecticut, and were the basis of a last-minute campaign in churches by Bush's opponents during his first two runs for the Senate seat which he lost. He was also an early supporter of the United Negro College Fund, serving as chairman of the Connecticut branch in 1951.

This is the history of the Republican Party, the party of Lincoln, I understood. Truthfully, within this Union of states called the United States, I simply cannot see any similarity between Mississippi, which just elected an avowed segregationist Republican to the United States Senate, and California where founders of the Bush dynasty, steeped in anti-slavery and women's rights activism, spent their early years.

In fact, being an old native Californian I don't understand how in the 21st Century America either...
  • Senator Kamala Harris, born to a Tamil Indian mother, a breast cancer researcher, who emigrated from Madras, Tamil Nadu, India, in 1960, and a Stanford University economics professor father who emigrated from Jamaica in 1961, or
  • California Senator Dianne Feinstein, whose paternal grandparents were Jewish immigrants from Poland and maternal grandparents of German-Jewish ancestry were immigrants from Saint Petersburg, Russia,
...can stand to be in the same room with Mississippi Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith who:
  • went to a segregation academy for grade school like the one she sent her daughter to, now attended by her granddaughter;
  • joked about lynching, saying she would “be on the front row” if a constituent asked her to go to “a public hanging";
  • voted against Senate Bill 1114 proposed by Dianne Feinstein on May 11, 2017 which would have nullified President Trump’s Executive Order 13798, which directing the Secretaries of Health and Human Services, Treasury, and Labor to consider issuing “conscience-based” protections for religious discrimination in a period of time of increasing violent attacks on the American Jewish community.


I know that necessarily Harris and Feinstein must attend Senate sessions. But particularly troubling is the 21st Century Republican woman segregation advocate pictured at the right standing next to Mississippi's state flag which enshrines the Confederate Battle Flag. Cindy Hyde-Smith won her election to the U.S. Senate with the strong support of the shouted bigotry of 21st Century Republican Donald Trump.

That she won in the same year that President George H.W. Bush died, a man whose family has been advocating for equality and human rights for over 150 years, is disheartening.

I am a native Californian, I'm old, and find myself in a struggle to reconcile history with today. It is almost enough to become an advocate for the California secession movement known as Calexit.