Tuesday, October 6, 2020

California's success in limiting the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic - will we continue to behave?

The chart above is a simple approach to holding down the Covid-19 infection rate while avoiding the political carnival created by Donald Trump's supporters. It is reflective of the success of Governor Gavin Newsom's Administration in addressing the threat of Covid-19 to the health care system that is clearly seen in these graphs:

Statewide the hospitalization rate has been far lower than feared which was the primary policy objective in instituting and managing an initial economic shutdown followed by a controlled, limited reopening process. The "first wave" resulted in manageable case loads and a related curve in daily deaths.

Yesterday, Newsom warned of a possible second wave.

What Newsom's Administration has not yet explained in second grade English (and Spanish and Mandarin and Vietnamese and...) is that the Tier Chart at the top is self-enforcing. Residents of each county may decide the level of economic shutdown in their economy. If in any county the populace wants to believe Covid-19 is some hoax and self-distancing and wearing masks interfere with their God-given right to put others at risk, so be it. If in such a county the caseload rises, the risky behavior will cause the social-intereaction-dependant elements of the economy of the county to shutdown again. Business owners will know that the economic impact can be limited by restricting their customers' behavior. It's all right there in the Tier Chart.

How Californians wish to respond to reports of a second wave will be their choice.

On August 9 in the post Governor Gavin Newsom's California "don't get no respect" by the news media in the Covid-19 Crisis the remarkable success by California state and local government dealing with the pandemic was noted. Among the states, California's Covid-19 death rate ranks quite low given that it is the largest state in population and it's economy ranks 5th in the world:

Hopefully, California can continue to succeed until a vaccine is widely available.

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