Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Hillary's Michigan Loss: Ignore the exit polls and start worrying, Democratic Party officials

The press today is citing exit polls on what happened in the Democratic Primary in Michigan. When Democratic voters in Michigan were queried about their votes with pollsters giving a set of rational issue-based reasons to choose from, those voters appear to have voted after thoughtful consideration.

Sure, let's all be foolish about this. When voters are queried by the press about why they have voted for a candidate, the one thing they will not be discussing is the gnawing prejudices that exist deep in the back of their minds.

The demographic background of each Michigan County is far more enlightening.The numbers are only just beginning to be released and the detailed, precinct-by-precinct, analysis statewide isn't going to be available for probably a week. But here's what I do know about the Michigan vote.

Bernie Sanders won big in Western Michigan. A good example is Kent County, the County Seat being Grand Rapids. The makeup of the population is 80% White, 10% Black, 2% Asian, 8% other race. The turnout overall was 39% of registered voters. Of the total votes cast in Kent County, 58% were in the Republican Primary, 40% were in the Democratic Primary. Bernie received 62% of the Democratic vote, Hillary 37%. Look at the population breakdown. Look at the fact that the majority folks in this County did vote Republican.

The only county in Michigan Hillary won by a meaningful margin is Wayne County, the County Seat being Detroit. The makeup of the population is 52% White, 41% Black, 3% Asian, 4% other race. The turnout overall was 31% of registered voters with an alarmingly low turnout in Detroit of 25%. Of the total votes cast, 33% were in the Republican Primary, 67% were in the Democratic Primary. Hillary received 60% of the Democratic vote, Bernie 38%.

The pundits are now saying Hillary is only winning in the South as last night she won Mississippi with 83% of the vote while Sanders got only 17%. However, of the votes cast in Mississippi 64% were in the Republican Primary.

No Electoral College votes from Mississippi will be cast for a Democratic Presidential candidate in November.

Michigan is a state that frequently votes Democratic in Presidential elections. It is a critical state for the Democrats to win in November. The problem to overcome is represented by the fact that 1.32 million Republicans voted last night, compared to 1.12 million Democrats. If the Democrats lose Michigan in the November Presidential Election they will have lost the Electoral College Vote.

It's time for Democratic Party leaders, and perhaps the few members of the press who aren't morons, to focus on the truth. Whether in the North or the South, Black Democrats are voting overwhelming for Hillary. Suburban White Democrats are voting for Bernie. Like it or not, the Democratic Party also has been split by the 2016 Primaries and the split is racial.

In November Sanders' suburban White Democrats will not carry Michigan if Black Democrats are demoralized and don't vote. I don't see how a grumpy old white guy socialist candidate who would be a President with a House of Representatives dominated by racist Republicans could give Black Democrats any hope that progress can be made. The same should be true for women Democrats.

If the Democratic primary results in Illinois and Ohio follow similar demographic lines, President Donald Trump, anyone???

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